This week, the Olympic flame will be lit in Italy, and women’s biathlon may never have looked this open ahead of a Games. France arrive with exceptional depth, Sweden are the reigning relay champions, Germany place their hopes on Franziska Preuss, while for the host nation Italy, Antholz could represent a historic opportunity – especially with Dorothea Wierer set to compete at her farewell Olympics. I take a team-by-team look at the biggest medal contenders in women’s biathlon ahead of the Olympic Games.
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Across 14 individual races this season, we have seen 10 different winners, while Dorothea Wierer, Anna Magnusson, Suvi Minkkinen and Lou Jeanmonnot have all worn the yellow bib at some point.
So far, 15 different athletes have stepped onto the podium, underlining just how tight and unpredictable the field has been. In such a competitive landscape, team selections and event entries could prove decisive.
France
Squad:
- Camille Bened
- Justine Braisaz-Bouchet
- Lou Jeanmonnot
- Océane Michelon
- Jeanne Richard
- Julia Simon
It would be difficult to argue with this lineup. The real headache for the coaching staff is that, except for the mass start, only four athletes can be entered per individual event. In the mass start according to the rules, even though there are five French athletes in the top 15, only four of them can compete in the mass start. However, if any nation has more than four medalists, all medalists from that nation will be allowed to compete.This means that Julia Simon’s participation currently depends on other French competitors, as the other rule is that medalists can compete in the mass start, but this is overridden by the top 15 rule in the case of the French. This situation is unique, as Julia Simon is the only one who cannot qualify for the mass start on her own.
Jeanmonnot, Braisaz-Bouchet and Simon are all but certain starters in the individual races. The fourth spot is likely to be decided between Michelon and Bened. Both have achieved two podium finishes this season, with Bened holding roughly a 70-point advantage in the overall standings. Bened is the more consistent shooter, while Michelon has the edge in skiing speed.
Given these factors, it would be surprising if Bened did not start in the individual race. Beyond that, the staff face interesting questions: should Richard be left out entirely? Should Bened also start in the sprint? A realistic scenario sees Michelon starting the sprint and Bened the individual.
From a medal perspective, anything less than two or three medals for Jeanmonnot would likely be considered a disappointment. She has recorded seven podium finishes this season, including three in her last four races. Simon showed impressive ski speed in the most recent World Cup weekend and must be taken seriously, though multiple medals would be surprising given her fluctuating form.
Braisaz-Bouchet remains the ultimate wildcard: on one day, she can shoot 0+1 in the sprint, only to miss seven targets in the pursuit and fall outside the top 15. Notably, she has yet to complete a flawless race this season.
France finished sixth in the most recent relay. Repeating that result would be a major disappointment, Braisaz and Simon again part of the team.
Prediction:
Relay lineup: Jeanmonnot – Michelon – Braisaz-Bouchet – Simon
Medals: Jeanmonnot 2, Braisaz-Bouchet 1, Simon 1
Relay: They win medal
Sweden
Squad:
- Anna Magnusson
- Ella Halvarsson
- Elvira Öberg
- Hanna Öberg
- Linn Gestblom
- Anna-Karin Heijdenberg
Sweden also secured the maximum six quotas, and three athletes appear guaranteed starts in all individual races: Elvira Öberg, Hanna Öberg and Anna Magnusson. The remaining spot is the real question, with Halvarsson, Gestblom and Heijdenberg competing for it.
If World Cup standings alone decided the issue, Halvarsson would get the nod. However, she struggled in Ruhpolding, finishing outside the top 40 in both individual races. Heijdenberg competed in Annecy for the first time in the World Cup this season, delivering mixed results, including one top-10 finish. Gestblom has had limited individual opportunities and has struggled with shooting, but impressed strongly in two relay appearances. Heijdenberg has also raced twice in relays, once incurring a penalty loop, once delivering a solid performance. Halvarsson, meanwhile, has featured in several relays and even claimed victory in the single mixed relay.
The most likely scenario sees Halvarsson starting the individual due to her superior shooting accuracy. If that does not go well, Heijdenberg could be given the sprint.
In terms of medals, both Öberg sisters are expected to reach the podium. Magnusson has dropped off after a strong start to the season, making a top-three finish less likely. As defending relay champions, Sweden look even stronger on paper this time – the key question is whether they can deliver when it matters.
Prediction:
Relay lineup: Halvarsson – Magnusson – Elvira Öberg – Hanna Öberg
Individual medals: Hanna Öberg 1, Elvira Öberg 1
Relay: They win medal
Germany
Squad:
- Selina Grotian
- Janina Hettich-Walz
- Franziska Preuss
- Julia Tannheimer
- Vanessa Voigt
- Anna Weidel
Germany also face difficult selection decisions. Voigt and Preuss are certain starters, but the remaining two spots are far from clear. The choice will likely come down to Hettich-Walz, Weidel and Tannheimer, who sit 27th, 28th and 29th respectively in the overall standings.
For the individual race, shooting accuracy could be decisive. Weidel and Hettich-Walz both shoot above 80%, while Tannheimer stands at 76%, making her more likely to start the sprint instead if others struggle.
Medal expectations are limited. Preuss is the only realistic individual medal contender, and even a single medal would be considered a success given that neither her skiing nor shooting matches last season’s level. She currently has one Olympic bronze medal and will retire at the end of the season, making this her final chance at Olympic gold.
Germany won bronze in the relay in Beijing, with Voigt and Preuss again likely to feature. A perfect race would be required to reach the podium this time.
Prediction:
Relay lineup: Voigt – Weidel – Hettich-Walz – Preuss
Medals: Preuss 1
Relay: No medal
Norway
Squad:
- Juni Arnekleiv
- Marthe Kråkstad Johansen
- Karoline Offigstad Knotten
- Maren Kirkeeide
- Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold
With five quotas, Norway will have to leave one athlete out of the individual races. The most likely starters are Kirkeeide, Johansen, Knotten and Tandrevold. Realistic medal hopes rest almost entirely on Kirkeeide, with top-six finishes representing strong results for the others.
Kirkeeide has broken through this season with three podium finishes and would be expected to claim at least one medal. Norway finished fourth in the most recent relay and appear weaker on paper this time. However, if Kirkeeide reaches the final leg in contention, gold cannot be ruled out. Still, much depends on whether the team can remain competitive through the first three legs.
Prediction:
Relay lineup: Johansen – Arnekleiv – Knotten – Kirkeeide
Medals: Kirkeeide 1
Relay: No medal
Italy
Squad:
- Hannah Auchentaller
- Michela Carrara
- Rebecca Passler (suspended due to doping)
- Lisa Vittozzi
- Dorothea Wierer
When this article was originally written, Wierer, Vittozzi and Passler were all expected starters. Passler’s suspension has since clarified the selection picture.
Both Wierer and Vittozzi are genuine medal contenders and capable of winning on any given day, combining strong skiing with extremely fast shooting. Wierer will retire after the Olympics, making this her final appearance, and it may also be Vittozzi’s last Games. Wierer has won three Olympic medals so far, Vittozzi one bronze. Many will hope for a fitting farewell on home snow.
Italy finished fifth in the most recent relay – repeating that result would be a disappointment.
Prediction:
Relay lineup: Auchentaller – Wierer – Carrara – Vittozzi
Medals: Wierer 1, Vittozzi 1
Relay: They win medal
Other contenders
Finland’s Suvi Minkkinen has enjoyed a breakout season. At 31, this may well be her final opportunity, and with five podium finishes already, it would be a surprise if she did not reach the podium at least once.
Lisa Theresa Hauser has won a race this season and remains a potential surprise package, though she would likely need several favorites to falter. Outside these names, any podium finish would be a major shock – though Olympic history reminds us that surprises are always possible. In 2022, Denise Herrmann arrived without a podium all season and went on to win the individual race.
Prediction:One Minkkinen podium and one surprise medalist
Facts & schedule
- 29 nations qualified women’s quotas.
- Several countries return after long absences, including Australia (after 12 years) and Croatia (after 16 years).
Mixed relay analysis will follow in the men’s preview.
Women’s biathlon schedule:
- Mixed relay – February 8, 14:05
- Individual – February 11, 14:15
- Sprint – February 14, 14:45
- Pursuit – February 15, 14:45
- Relay – February 18, 14:45
- Mass start – February 21, 14:15
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